30 July 2025, Geneva

Situation Overview

China is expanding its digital and surveillance presence across Central Asia through strategic investments in telecommunications infrastructure, biometric border control systems, and smart city surveillance technology. From Kazakhstan to Kyrgyzstan, Beijing is embedding its standards, platforms, and influence into the digital backbone of emerging Eurasian states, shaping both their political alignment and their cyber sovereignty.

Key Developments

• Huawei and ZTE have won contracts to build or upgrade 5G networks in at least 4 of the 5 Central Asian republics, often through opaque financing via the Digital Silk Road.

• Smart city projects in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan include Chinese AI-powered facial recognition and license plate monitoring systems, many of which are modeled directly after China's domestic surveillance infrastructure.

• Biometric border systems funded by Beijing are being implemented along Kazakhstan’s border with Xinjiang, including backdoor clauses for data sharing.

• Training programs in cybersecurity and surveillance technology are being offered to Central Asian governments through Chinese institutions, thereby embedding technical dependence.
  
  

Strategic Implications

• Cyber Sovereignty Undermined: Many of these states now rely on Chinese hardware, software, and expertise for critical infrastructure, compromising autonomy.
  
  

• Authoritarian Norms Exported: Chinese platforms come with governance assumptions that normalize surveillance, censorship, and control, rather than open systems.
  
  

• Wedge Between Allies: Western and multilateral engagement in the region risks being marginalized as Chinese digital ecosystems establish a foothold.
  
  

• Dual-Use Risk: Surveillance infrastructure ostensibly for counterterrorism or “public safety” can also be repurposed for political suppression or regional espionage.
  
  

Risk Forecast (3–6 Months)

• Entrenchment of Chinese telecom standards - Lock-in effects will shape cyber norms for decades

  • Likelihood: High

  • Impact: High

• Regional data flow into PRC systems - Weak privacy protections and vague agreements

  • Likelihood: Medium

  • Impact: High

• Erosion of Western digital engagement - Western-backed alternatives losing relevance

  • Likelihood: High

  • Impact: Medium

Cognitive Risk

China’s growing digital presence is paired with soft-power narratives framing its technology as apolitical, reliable, and “non-interfering.” This contrasts sharply with Western messaging on democracy and human rights, creating narrative asymmetry. If left unchallenged, the “pragmatic authoritarianism” model risks gaining legitimacy among emerging governments.

ISRS Assessment

This is not just about infrastructure, it’s about strategic norms. China’s digital expansion in Central Asia is a soft-colonial model that hardens spheres of influence through code, cables, and cameras. Without intervention, entire regions may be digitally annexed without a single troop crossing a border.

ISRS urges:

• NATO and EU digital strategy engagement in Central Asia

• Cyber infrastructure investment with conditional democratic guardrails

• Narrative resilience efforts to challenge authoritarian digital legitimacy

• Disclosure incentives for digital backdoor incidents: Encourage governments and telecom providers to report suspected data exfiltration events and backdoor triggers, building a shared incident awareness baseline across the region.