13 June 2025, Geneva

Situation Overview

What happened:

In the early hours of June 13, Israeli forces conducted precision strikes against multiple targets within Iranian territory, marking the most direct and public military confrontation between the two nations in recent years. This follows months of covert escalation, including cyber operations, sabotage campaigns, and tit-for-tat strikes across regional proxies. Initial reports suggest the use of long-range air assets and standoff weapons, targeting suspected IRGC facilities and weapons development sites.

Iran’s response:

Iranian leadership has condemned the strikes as acts of war, vowing a “calculated and crushing” retaliation. State media reports have called for activation of Axis of Resistance partners across the region, including Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Houthi forces.

Strategic Implications

1. Regional War Risk Elevated

This marks a potential transition from covert hybrid conflict to overt conventional warfare. Iran’s retaliatory calculus may involve asymmetric escalation across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and the Red Sea corridor.

2. Global Oil & Shipping Impact

Iran may retaliate via the Strait of Hormuz or Bab al-Mandeb chokepoints, threatening up to 30% of global oil traffic. Early signs suggest shipping insurers are revising risk assessments.

3. Cyber and Influence Operations Likely to Spike

Both sides have extensive cyber arsenals. Expect uptick in destructive cyberattacks, particularly against critical infrastructure and information operations aimed at shaping international opinion.

4. U.S. & NATO Caught in Crossfire

The U.S. may be drawn in diplomatically or militarily, especially if regional allies or assets are targeted. NATO member states may diverge in their response, risking alliance strain.

Retaliation Forecast: Targeting the U.S. in Iraq

Iran has frequently responded to Israeli or U.S. actions by targeting American assets in Iraq. These responses often come under the guise of retaliation for aggression against Iran, but the U.S. and Israel are treated as a singular adversarial bloc in Iranian strategic messaging. Because Israel is less accessible geographically, especially without escalating into a broader war, U.S. military footprints in Iraq, particularly Al-Asad and Erbil airbases, serve as accessible and politically symbolic targets.

Observed Patterns:

• After the January 2020 U.S. drone strike on Qasem Soleimani, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Al-Asad and Erbil five days later, following a clear warning issued through intermediaries to avoid casualties.

• Smaller-scale rocket and drone attacks by Iranian-backed militias often occur in the 5–14 day window after major geopolitical incidents involving Israel or the U.S.

• These attacks serve multiple purposes: retaliation, deterrence signaling, and testing of regional red lines without committing to full-scale escalation.

Predicted Retaliation Timeline:

Phase I: Proxy Pressure Begins, June 14–21, 2025
Rocket/drone attacks by PMF or Kata’ib Hezbollah on U.S. bases

Phase II: Direct IRGC Response, June 18–27, 2025

Potential ballistic missile barrage, likely with forewarning

Phase III: Prolonged Pressure, Late June – Early July

Periodic low-intensity proxy attacks; cyber operations possible

Targets to Watch:

• Al-Asad Airbase (Anbar): Frequent historic target; well within range of ballistic and cruise missiles.

• Erbil International Airport (Kurdistan): Strategic value due to U.S. presence and visibility.

• Taji or Balad Airbases: Occasionally used in militia attacks, especially during sustained escalation cycles.
  
  

Implications of Retaliation Targeting U.S. Assets in Iraq:

• A strike on U.S. forces allows Iran to claim decisive action without directly targeting Israeli soil, maintaining deniability and managing escalation.

• If warnings are issued as in 2020, Iran may attempt to avoid fatalities while maximizing political and psychological impact.

• Any U.S. casualties,. especially if unintentional, risk expanding the scope of conflict and forcing a retaliatory cycle.
  
  

Retaliation Assessment:

Expect proxy attacks imminently. A major missile response is most likely between June 18–24. Risk levels remain high for U.S. forces in Iraq and the Gulf. ISRS recommends alert level adjustments and intensified ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) posture across allied regional installations.

Disinformation & Cognitive Risk

Expect a surge in disinformation narratives from all sides. Iranian channels will frame Israel as an aggressor, while Israeli media will emphasize preemptive self-defense.

Both states are likely to amplify proxies and online influence networks. Watch for synthetic content, especially AI-generated video, aimed at stoking outrage or confusion in diaspora communities.

Flashpoints to Monitor