25 June 2025, The Hague

By Mykola Volkivskyi

Member of the Board, Institute for Strategic Risk and Security (ISRS)

Reporting from The Hague NATO Summit

On June 24, the Institute for Strategic Risk and Security (ISRS) took part in an invitation only, closed-door NATO background briefing providing rare insight into the evolving dynamics of the Ukraine war. Delivered by a senior NATO official, the briefing provided a sobering and detailed picture of battlefield developments, evolving Russian tactics, and broader strategic implications for the Alliance and global security.

Russian forces have continued limited but steady territorial advances in eastern Ukraine, particularly toward Chasiv Yar and in areas east of Avdiivka, enabled by intensive air and artillery strikes. Despite these gains, no strategic breakthrough has occurred. Russia is reportedly suffering exceptionally high casualty rates—averaging around 1,300 personnel per day in early 2025—and NATO now assesses that Russia has crossed the threshold of one million total military casualties since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, with over 250,000 occurring in the past year alone.

The tempo of Russian aerial attacks remains extremely high. In one recent attack, Russian forces launched 352 drones and 15 missiles at civilian targets, including hospitals and residential areas. In response, Ukraine has increased the tempo and precision of its own long-range strikes, successfully targeting Russian defense-industrial facilities involved in the production of drones and munitions. While effective, these strikes have not halted Russia’s capacity to wage war, which continues to rely heavily on foreign-supplied components from Iran and North Korea and on repurposed Soviet-era stockpiles.

On the tactical level, Russia has begun employing motorcycle units and light vehicles to maneuver swiftly through exposed or contested terrain. This reflects the increasingly transparent nature of the modern battlefield, dominated by drone surveillance and long-range fires. NATO assesses these as short-term adaptations, not game-changing tactics. Ukrainian forces continue to adapt quickly and are likely developing countermeasures in real time. Overall, front-line integrity remains intact despite intensifying Russian pressure.

Strategically, Russia’s war aims remain unchanged. The Kremlin continues to insist on: halting Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration; obtaining long-term security guarantees from Ukraine; securing permanent control of Crimea and occupied Donbas; and demanding the full removal of Western sanctions and the return of frozen assets. NATO officials see no serious intention from Moscow to enter negotiations on terms that respect Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Russia’s war economy remains under strain but is not yet breaking. Approximately 32% of Russia’s 2025 federal budget is allocated to defense spending—up from 14.5% pre-war—while the National Welfare Fund has declined from $100 billion to $37 billion. Despite sanctions and logistical bottlenecks, Russia maintains significant defense production output, manufacturing roughly 130 tanks per month (a mix of new and refurbished units) and continuing to build artillery shells and armored vehicles at scale. However, structural weaknesses in advanced manufacturing, paint, electronics, and specialized parts remain evident.

The briefing also touched on the geopolitical context. Recent ambiguous statements from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Article 5 have not gone unnoticed in Moscow. While NATO officials declined to comment directly on American politics, they underscored that signals of allied unity—or division—carry weight in the Kremlin’s calculations. Still, the official stressed that NATO deterrence posture remains credible and robust, bolstered by forward deployments, intelligence sharing, and growing industrial capacity.

Regarding the broader regional picture, no immediate Russian military threat is detected against Moldova, though hybrid operations, disinformation campaigns, and political interference remain active concerns. In Ukraine’s northeast, around the Sumy axis, Russia may be staging for potential future offensives, but a lack of sufficient reserves likely limits its capacity for a major breakthrough.

The overall assessment is that the conflict remains in a high-intensity, attritional phase. Russia continues to apply pressure across the front, hoping to exhaust Ukrainian resistance and fracture Western resolve. Yet Ukrainian defenses are holding, supported by innovation, adaptability, and resilience on the ground—and by NATO’s continued commitment.

The briefing concluded with a clear warning: the months ahead will be difficult. Summer 2025 may prove decisive not through dramatic territorial shifts, but through the test of political will, alliance solidarity, and long-term strategic endurance. The war’s outcome will depend less on individual tactical gains and more on sustained support for Ukraine and clarity of purpose within the West.

For ISRS, the implications are clear: democratic resilience must be paired with sustained strategic clarity, and support for Ukraine must not waver.