12 September 2025, Geneva

Situation Overview

While it began as a routine NATO exercise, Eastern Sentry swiftly evolved into a real-world show of force after Russian hybrid activity escalated across Poland and the Baltic region. Drone incursions, GNSS jamming, and sabotage threats triggered NATO’s first direct kinetic response inside allied airspace during the war. 

Quick Snapshot of the Details

• Airspace Violations: Russian drones breached Polish skies; several were downed by Dutch F-35s and Polish F-16s, resulting in NATO's first kinetic action in-theater.

• GNSS Jamming: Persistent GPS denial disrupted civil aviation, maritime safety, and emergency response coordination across Eastern Europe.

• Sabotage Threats: Coordinated threats emerged targeting rail lines, power grids, and ports, suspected Russian-backed hybrid probes.

NATO’s Response: Eastern Sentry Activation

• Exercise-to-Action Shift: Eastern Sentry, initially an exercise, transitioned into a live forward defense operation.

• Air Defense Readiness: Baltic Air Policing escalated to a combat-ready posture, with live intercepts authorized.

• Force Mobilization: U.S., German, and U.K. battlegroups under NATO’s New Force Model rapidly reinforced forward positions.

• Multi-Domain Integration: Synchronized air, cyber, and EW ops: counter-GNSS tactics, drone kill chains, and rapid ISR fusion.

• Command & Control: Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) executed preapproved contingency plans under Article 5-ready conditions.

Strategic Implications

Hybrid Ambiguity

Drone strikes and jamming operate in the gray zone, but NATO’s shift to kinetic action closes ambiguity gaps.

Deterrence Through Agility

Converting an exercise into real-world action shows credible readiness, not just signaling.

Narrative Control

NATO’s coordinated messaging denied Moscow a propaganda opening, reinforcing alliance cohesion.

Asymmetric Tensions

Low-cost Russian tools (e.g. drones, jammers) are triggering high-cost allied readiness, risking escalation cycles.

ISRS Forecast Outcomes

• Potential Escalation: Further incursions or sabotage attempts could test NATO’s red lines and strategic patience.

• Disinformation Risk: Russia may amplify narratives of NATO “aggression” to sow division or justify countermeasures.

• Policy Window: Opportunity for NATO to update standing hybrid defense protocols and reinvest in Baltic air/maritime resilience.
  
  

Conclusion

Eastern Sentry is no longer a drill.  NATO has demonstrated its ability to respond to hybrid provocation with real-world force, on its own terms, on its own timeline.

Related Flashpoint Briefings

• Poland-Russia: Drones, Drills, and the Suwałki Pressure Test