8 August 2025, Geneva

Situation Overview

The era of a singular, open global internet might be ending. Around the world, governments are erecting digital borders through legal mandates, surveillance regimes, technical architectures, and sovereign DNS protocols. This "Splinternet" isn't just a metaphor; it's rapidly becoming the new reality of geopolitics in cyberspace.

While the trend has been long in motion, 2025 may be remembered as a turning point. A recent wave of digital sovereignty agreements by authoritarian regimes, infrastructure deployments, and legal harmonization efforts suggest that the bifurcation of the internet into democratic and authoritarian digital blocs is accelerating.

One case drawing attention is Belarus's deepening digital ties with China, which some experts believe may include experimental sovereign DNS infrastructure backed by Huawei. Though not officially confirmed, the context and strategic alignment make this an instructive preview of what’s to come.

Key Data Points

• Fragmentation by Design:

  • China, Russia, Iran, and India are each pursuing national DNS roots, traffic localization mandates, and deep-packet inspection regimes.

  • EU's GDPR and Digital Services Act, while democratic in intent, also increase friction across global digital boundaries.

• Huawei’s Role:

  • Huawei markets a "sovereign DNS stack" with encrypted routing, national root server capability, and cross-border filtering controls.  Although this appears to be more of a proposal than an active implementation.

  • Huawei's infrastructure, which includes 5G networks, data centers, and fiber optic cables, has been deployed in over 170 countries. These projects are often a key component of China's Digital Silk Road and are frequently bundled with smart city and surveillance solutions. While these deals provide affordable connectivity, they have also raised concerns among Western governments about data security and the potential for espionage.

• Belarus as a Prototype?

  • In 2025, Belarus adopted a formal "digital sovereignty" doctrine and signed new digital cooperation deals with China.

  • While unconfirmed, experts suspect Belarus may be testing sovereign-layer DNS routing using Huawei infrastructure as a pilot model.
    
    

Key Takeaways

• Bifurcation is coming. The global internet is splintering into competing models of governance, rooted in technical infrastructure and normative values.

• This is infrastructure as ideology. The shape of a country's digital backbone increasingly mirrors its political alignment.

• DNS is the new front line. Routing protocols, not routers, may define the future balance of power in cyberspace.

Strategic & Cognitive Risks

• Resilience Risk
  Open societies become digitally isolated if alternative systems outpace democratic infrastructure.

• Attribution Risk
  Fragmented DNS layers obscure traffic, complicating cyber attribution and response.

• Normative Risk
  Authoritarian-aligned models may become the default in the Global South, especially where aid is tied to infrastructure.

• Perception Risk
  Citizens in sovereign-stack nations may be unaware of manipulated routing or filtered access.

Strategic Implications

• Authoritarian Interoperability: Countries adopting sovereign internet models may form de facto digital alliances based on shared filtering, surveillance, and routing systems.

• Erosion of Global Norms: The multistakeholder governance model championed by ICANN and IETF is being challenged by state-centric, closed standards.

• Policy Fragmentation: Diplomatic and security coordination between NATO/EU states and digital-sovereignty adopters becomes harder as systems diverge.
  
  

Recommendations

1. Track Global Internet Fragmentation: Monitor deployment of sovereign DNS systems, legal data localization mandates, and cross-border filtering alliances.

2. Engage at the Protocol Level: Invest in open-source, democratic internet infrastructure and defend open norms in standards-setting bodies (IETF, ITU, etc.).

3. Support Digital Autonomy in Vulnerable States: Provide financing, training, and infrastructure alternatives to nations at risk of falling into authoritarian internet blocs.

4. Publicly Map Digital Alignments: Treat internet infrastructure as a domain of strategic influence—and expose digital clientelism as a sovereignty risk.
   
   

Case Study: Belarus and the Huawei-Backed Digital Corridor

While not publicly confirmed, Belarus's new partnership with China in the digital domain raises red flags. With Huawei's DNS infrastructure already in place across much of the developing world, and Belarus formally embracing digital sovereignty, the country is likely to become a pilot case for authoritarian-aligned digital models in Europe's near abroad.

What happens next in Belarus could preview the shape of the internet in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and even parts of the Balkans.

Related Flashpoint Briefings

• China’s Expanding Digital Influence in Central Asia